Ethnopolitical rebellion: A cross-sectional analysis of the 1980s with risk assessments for the 1990s

Ted Robert Gurr, Will H. Moore

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

231 Scopus citations

Abstract

Theory: A synthetic theoretical model built on both deprivation and resource mobilization arguments is constructed to explain ethnopolitical rebellion for the 1980s and to provide risk assessments for the early 1990s. Hypotheses: We hypothesize that ethnopolitical groups which produce residuals well below the regression line will likely exhibit rebellious behavior in the early 1990s. Methods: We use a three stage least squares estimator, analyze the coefficients and their standard errors, and also examine the residuals. Results: We find broad support for the theoretical synthesis, but focus attention on the risk assessments. In addition to identifying ethnopolitical groups that did resort to greater violence in the early 1990s, the theoretical model helps us explain why a number of groups that the analysis suggested would rebel in the early 1990s have not in fact done so.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1079-1103
Number of pages25
JournalAmerican Journal of Political Science
Volume41
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1997

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Political Science and International Relations

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