TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimation of annual mileage budgets for a multiple discrete-continuous choice model of household vehicle ownership and utilization
AU - Augustin, Bertho
AU - Pinjari, Abdul R.
AU - Eluru, Naveen
AU - Pendyala, Ram M.
N1 - Funding Information:
This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation through a grant. Anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments on an earlier manuscript
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - This paper presents an empirical comparison of the following approaches to estimate annual mileage budgets for multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) models of household vehicle ownership and utilization: (a) a log-linear regression approach to model observed total annual household vehicle miles traveled (AH-VMT), (b) a stochastic frontier regression approach to model latent annual vehicle mileage frontier, and (c) other approaches used in the literature to assume annual household vehicle mileage budgets. For the stochastic regression approach, MDCEV and multiple discrete-continuous heteroscedastic extreme value (MDCHEV) models were estimated and examined. When model predictions were compared with observed distributions of vehicle ownership and utilization in a validation data sample, the log-linear regression approach performed better than other approaches. However, policy simulations demonstrate that the log-linear regression approach does not allow for AH-VMT to increase or decrease as a result of changes in vehicle-specific attributes, such as changes in fuel economy. The stochastic frontier approach overcomes that limitation. Policy simulation results with the stochastic frontier approach suggest that increasing the fuel economy of a category of vehicles increases the ownership and use of those vehicles. But this does not necessarily translate into an equal decrease in the use of other household vehicles, confirming previous findings in the literature that improvements in fuel economy tend to induce additional travel. In view of policy responsiveness and prediction accuracy, using the stochastic frontier regression (for estimating mileage budgets) in conjunction with the MDCHEV model for discrete-continuous choice analysis of household vehicle ownership and utilization is recommended.
AB - This paper presents an empirical comparison of the following approaches to estimate annual mileage budgets for multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) models of household vehicle ownership and utilization: (a) a log-linear regression approach to model observed total annual household vehicle miles traveled (AH-VMT), (b) a stochastic frontier regression approach to model latent annual vehicle mileage frontier, and (c) other approaches used in the literature to assume annual household vehicle mileage budgets. For the stochastic regression approach, MDCEV and multiple discrete-continuous heteroscedastic extreme value (MDCHEV) models were estimated and examined. When model predictions were compared with observed distributions of vehicle ownership and utilization in a validation data sample, the log-linear regression approach performed better than other approaches. However, policy simulations demonstrate that the log-linear regression approach does not allow for AH-VMT to increase or decrease as a result of changes in vehicle-specific attributes, such as changes in fuel economy. The stochastic frontier approach overcomes that limitation. Policy simulation results with the stochastic frontier approach suggest that increasing the fuel economy of a category of vehicles increases the ownership and use of those vehicles. But this does not necessarily translate into an equal decrease in the use of other household vehicles, confirming previous findings in the literature that improvements in fuel economy tend to induce additional travel. In view of policy responsiveness and prediction accuracy, using the stochastic frontier regression (for estimating mileage budgets) in conjunction with the MDCHEV model for discrete-continuous choice analysis of household vehicle ownership and utilization is recommended.
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U2 - 10.3141/2493-14
DO - 10.3141/2493-14
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84964640610
SN - 0361-1981
VL - 2493
SP - 126
EP - 135
JO - Transportation Research Record
JF - Transportation Research Record
ER -