10 Scopus citations

Abstract

The recent H1N1 ("swine u") pandemic and recent H5N1 ("avian u") outbreaks have brought increased attention to the study of the role of animal populations as reservoirs for pathogens that could invade human populations. It is believed that pigs acquired u strains from birds and humans, acting as a mixing vessel in generating new influenza viruses. Assessing the role of animal reservoirs, particularly reservoirs involving highly mobile populations (like migratory birds), on disease dispersal and persistence is of interests to a wide range of researchers including public health experts and evolutionary biologists. This paper studies the interactions between transient and resident bird populations and their role on dispersal and persistence. A metapopulation framework based on a system of nonlinear ordinary dierential equations is used to study the transmission dynamics and control of avian diseases. Simplified versions of mathematical models involving a limited number of migratory and resident bird populations are analyzed. Epidemiological time scales and singular perturbation methods are used to reduce the dimensionality of the model. Our results show that mixing of bird populations (involving residents and migratory birds) play an important role on the patterns of disease spread.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)199-222
Number of pages24
JournalMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2011

Keywords

  • Avian Influenza
  • Epidemic Models
  • Epidemiological Time Scales
  • Mixing Probabilities
  • Singular Perturbation Theory

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Computational Mathematics
  • Applied Mathematics

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