Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing Potential Demand of Customized Buses in Shanghai, China

Dongjin Li, Xin Ye, Jie Ma

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

The customized bus (CB) is an emerging commute mode in China, and it is operated flexibly with schedules arranged based on online reservations. However, a CB can only be operated with sufficient travel demand. This paper aims to develop a commute mode choice model to explore influential factors on the potential demand for CBs in Shanghai, China, and specify their impacts. Revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data are collected from a questionnaire survey and integrated with skim data from road and transit network analysis. The study focuses on commuters in morning peak hours using six main modes, including CB. A SP survey collected commuters' preference for CBs under hypothetical scenarios based on CB's unit fare, operating speed, and travel time fluctuation levels. Variables significantly influencing mode choice are specified in the model, including level-of-service (LOS) and socioeconomic and demographic attributes. The model indicates that the CB's fare, in-vehicle time, and travel time fluctuation negatively affect the potential demand for CBs. Part-time students, the middle-aged, or well-educated commuters are more likely to use a CB, whereas male, low-income, or poorly educated people show less tendency to shift to a CB. The developed model is expected to be applied in a citywide travel demand model and provide reference for policy-making.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalJournal of Urban Planning and Development
Volume145
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2019
Externally publishedYes

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Keywords

  • Commute mode choice
  • Customized bus
  • Data fusion
  • Potential demand
  • Revealed preference (RP)
  • Stated preference (SP)

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Development
  • Urban Studies

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