Electric Grid Vulnerabilities to Rising Air Temperatures in Arizona

Daniel Burillo, Mikhail Chester, Benjamin Ruddell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Ambient air temperatures are expected to increase in the US desert southwest by 1-5 °C mid-century which will strain the electric power grid through increased loads, reduced power capacities, efficiencies, and material lifespans. To better understand and quantify this risk, a power infrastructure failure model is created to estimate changes in outage rates of components for increases in air temperatures in Arizona. Components analyzed include generation, transmission lines, and substations, because their outages can lead to cascading failures and interruptions of other critical infrastructure systems such as water, transportation, and information/communication technology. Preliminary results indicate that components could require maintenance or replacement up to 3 times more often due to mechanical failures, outages could occur up to 30 times more often due to overcurrent tripping, and the probability of cascading failures could increase 30 times as well for a 1 °C increase in ambient air temperature. Preventative measures can include infrastructure upgrades to more thermal resistant parts, installation of cooling systems, smart grid power flow controls, and expanding programs for demand side management and customer energy efficiency.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1346-1353
Number of pages8
JournalUnknown Journal
Volume145
DOIs
StatePublished - 2016
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Outages
Air
Temperature
Southwestern United States
Critical infrastructures
Cooling systems
Flow control
Power control
Energy efficiency
Electric lines
Loads (forces)
Hot Temperature
Maintenance
Technology
Water
Communication

Keywords

  • climate change
  • electric power
  • energy
  • extreme heat
  • failure analysis
  • infrastructure
  • reliability
  • resiliency

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Electric Grid Vulnerabilities to Rising Air Temperatures in Arizona. / Burillo, Daniel; Chester, Mikhail; Ruddell, Benjamin.

In: Unknown Journal, Vol. 145, 2016, p. 1346-1353.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Burillo, Daniel ; Chester, Mikhail ; Ruddell, Benjamin. / Electric Grid Vulnerabilities to Rising Air Temperatures in Arizona. In: Unknown Journal. 2016 ; Vol. 145. pp. 1346-1353.
@article{0593dda9715a4e3483eb1f16bf093ab9,
title = "Electric Grid Vulnerabilities to Rising Air Temperatures in Arizona",
abstract = "Ambient air temperatures are expected to increase in the US desert southwest by 1-5 °C mid-century which will strain the electric power grid through increased loads, reduced power capacities, efficiencies, and material lifespans. To better understand and quantify this risk, a power infrastructure failure model is created to estimate changes in outage rates of components for increases in air temperatures in Arizona. Components analyzed include generation, transmission lines, and substations, because their outages can lead to cascading failures and interruptions of other critical infrastructure systems such as water, transportation, and information/communication technology. Preliminary results indicate that components could require maintenance or replacement up to 3 times more often due to mechanical failures, outages could occur up to 30 times more often due to overcurrent tripping, and the probability of cascading failures could increase 30 times as well for a 1 °C increase in ambient air temperature. Preventative measures can include infrastructure upgrades to more thermal resistant parts, installation of cooling systems, smart grid power flow controls, and expanding programs for demand side management and customer energy efficiency.",
keywords = "climate change, electric power, energy, extreme heat, failure analysis, infrastructure, reliability, resiliency",
author = "Daniel Burillo and Mikhail Chester and Benjamin Ruddell",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.173",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "145",
pages = "1346--1353",
journal = "Scanning Electron Microscopy",
issn = "0586-5581",
publisher = "Scanning Microscopy International",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Electric Grid Vulnerabilities to Rising Air Temperatures in Arizona

AU - Burillo, Daniel

AU - Chester, Mikhail

AU - Ruddell, Benjamin

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - Ambient air temperatures are expected to increase in the US desert southwest by 1-5 °C mid-century which will strain the electric power grid through increased loads, reduced power capacities, efficiencies, and material lifespans. To better understand and quantify this risk, a power infrastructure failure model is created to estimate changes in outage rates of components for increases in air temperatures in Arizona. Components analyzed include generation, transmission lines, and substations, because their outages can lead to cascading failures and interruptions of other critical infrastructure systems such as water, transportation, and information/communication technology. Preliminary results indicate that components could require maintenance or replacement up to 3 times more often due to mechanical failures, outages could occur up to 30 times more often due to overcurrent tripping, and the probability of cascading failures could increase 30 times as well for a 1 °C increase in ambient air temperature. Preventative measures can include infrastructure upgrades to more thermal resistant parts, installation of cooling systems, smart grid power flow controls, and expanding programs for demand side management and customer energy efficiency.

AB - Ambient air temperatures are expected to increase in the US desert southwest by 1-5 °C mid-century which will strain the electric power grid through increased loads, reduced power capacities, efficiencies, and material lifespans. To better understand and quantify this risk, a power infrastructure failure model is created to estimate changes in outage rates of components for increases in air temperatures in Arizona. Components analyzed include generation, transmission lines, and substations, because their outages can lead to cascading failures and interruptions of other critical infrastructure systems such as water, transportation, and information/communication technology. Preliminary results indicate that components could require maintenance or replacement up to 3 times more often due to mechanical failures, outages could occur up to 30 times more often due to overcurrent tripping, and the probability of cascading failures could increase 30 times as well for a 1 °C increase in ambient air temperature. Preventative measures can include infrastructure upgrades to more thermal resistant parts, installation of cooling systems, smart grid power flow controls, and expanding programs for demand side management and customer energy efficiency.

KW - climate change

KW - electric power

KW - energy

KW - extreme heat

KW - failure analysis

KW - infrastructure

KW - reliability

KW - resiliency

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84999816110&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84999816110&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.173

DO - 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.173

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84999816110

VL - 145

SP - 1346

EP - 1353

JO - Scanning Electron Microscopy

JF - Scanning Electron Microscopy

SN - 0586-5581

ER -