Effect of global change on maize production in the Argentinean pampas

We analyzed the direct effect of enhanced CO₂ concentration and the effect of expected climate change on the production of maize Zea mays L. in the Argentine Rolling Pampas. Maize yield was simulated using the CERES Maize model. Climate change scenarios for double CO₂ were generated by 3 widely used Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Simulation analysis indicated a decrease in maize yield between 20 and 25% according to the GCM chosen. The 3 GCMs predicted an increase in temperature and precipitation, mainly during summer months. Yield reduction was mainly the result of the shortening of the growing cycle. The direct effect of CO₂ enhancement did not compensate the reduction in yield associated with the shortening of the growing season. New cultivars may be a good way of offseting the effects of global change. -from Authors