@article{f9a7efad0e4041898d5fbb77ee653cec,
title = "Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites",
abstract = "Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-deficit ecosystems. Streamflow was correlated with climate variability indices (e.g., the El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation), especially in seasons when vegetation influences are limited. Air temperature increased significantly at 17 of the 19 sites with 20-to 60-year records, but streamflow trends were directly related to climate trends (through changes in ice and snow) at only 7 sites. Past and present human and natural disturbance, vegetation succession, and human water use can mimic, exacerbate, counteract, or mask the effects of climate change on streamflow, even in reference basins. Long-term ecological research sites are ideal places to disentangle these processes.",
keywords = "Budyko curve, precipitation/runoff ratio, socioecological systems, succession, trend",
author = "Jones, {Julia A.} and Creed, {Irena F.} and Hatcher, {Kendra L.} and Warren, {Robert J.} and Adams, {Mary Beth} and Benson, {Melinda H.} and Emery Boose and Brown, {Warren A.} and Campbell, {John L.} and Alan Covich and Clow, {David W.} and Dahm, {Clifford N.} and Kelly Elder and Ford, {Chelcy R.} and Nancy Grimm and Henshaw, {Donald L.} and Kelli Larson and Miles, {Evan S.} and Miles, {Kathleen M.} and Sebestyen, {Stephen D.} and Spargo, {Adam T.} and Stone, {Asa B.} and Vose, {James M.} and Williams, {Mark W.}",
note = "Funding Information: Funding for this work was provided by the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network and National Science Foundation grants to participating sites and by a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant to IFC. We thank LTER Network information managers for the creation and maintenance of ClimDB/HydroDB; the US Forest Service for the initial establishment and continued support of climate and basin measurements at many of the study sites; the US Geological Survey (USGS) Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program, the USGS Hydrologic Benchmark Network, and the USGS National Water Information Service for provision of data; and the Networks of Centres of Excellence– Sustainable Forest Management Network–funded project on HydroEcological Landscapes and Processes (HELP) and the participating Canadian experimental basins from which data were contributed to the HELP project (Peter Tschaplinski for CAR, Tom Clair for KEJ, Fred Beall for TLW and MRM, Ray Hesslein for ELA, Peter Dillon for DOR, and Rita Winkler for UPC). We thank Merryl Albers, David R. Foster, Eveleyn Gaiser, Ann Giblin, Stephen P. Loheide II, Randy K. Kolka, Richard V. Pouyat, Sylvia Schaefer, Emily H. Stanley, Frederick J. Swanson, Will Wollheim, and three anonymous reviewers for comments on the manuscript.",
year = "2012",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1525/bio.2012.62.4.10",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "62",
pages = "390--404",
journal = "BioScience",
issn = "0006-3568",
publisher = "American Institute of Biological Sciences",
number = "4",
}