Economic, organizational, and political influences on biases in forecasting state sales tax receipts

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

27 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper investigates factors influencing fixed bias in forecasting state sales taxes revenues. By extending an existing model used to explain forecast accuracy to include a series of complex interactions related to the potential political and policy use of revenue forecasts, the paper extends our understanding of the forecasting process in government. Exploratory empirical analysis based on survey data is used to provide evidence that bias in forecasting results, at least in part, from political and policy manipulation. There is also evidence that institutional reforms associated with 'good management' practices affect forecast bias, but in complex ways depending upon the extent to which political competition exists within the state.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)457-466
Number of pages10
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume7
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1992
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Forecast bias, Political and institutional influences, Economic uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business and International Management

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