Early school readiness predictors of grade retention from kindergarten through eighth grade: A multilevel discrete-time survival analysis approach

Pega Davoudzadeh, Melissa L. McTernan, Kevin Grimm

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The literature on predictors and effects of grade retention is vast. Known predictors of grade retention include gender, ethnicity, poverty, parental education, and academic skills. The subsequent effects of grade retention are hotly debated; however, many studies have shown grade retention to be detrimental to the student. The current study used a multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to investigate when grade retention is most likely in addition to whether school readiness predictors influenced grade retention at both the child- and school-level above and beyond background and demographic factors using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort. The results suggested that grade retention was most likely by third grade. Importantly, results indicated that school readiness predictors, specifically low early academic skills (i.e. reading, math, and general knowledge skills), were the strongest predictors of grade retention. When school readiness predictors were controlled for, within schools, variables previously shown to be risk factors (e.g. ethnicity and language spoken at home) were protective factors, underscoring the importance of including school readiness factors when studying grade retention and examining school- and child-level effects.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)183-192
Number of pages10
JournalEarly Childhood Research Quarterly
Volume32
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015

Fingerprint

school readiness
Survival Analysis
kindergarten
school grade
ethnicity
school
spoken language
demographic factors
longitudinal study
childhood
poverty
Poverty
time
gender
Longitudinal Studies
Reading
Language
Demography
education
Students

Keywords

  • Grade retention
  • Multilevel discrete-time survival analysis
  • School readiness predictors

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Developmental and Educational Psychology
  • Education
  • Sociology and Political Science

Cite this

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abstract = "The literature on predictors and effects of grade retention is vast. Known predictors of grade retention include gender, ethnicity, poverty, parental education, and academic skills. The subsequent effects of grade retention are hotly debated; however, many studies have shown grade retention to be detrimental to the student. The current study used a multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to investigate when grade retention is most likely in addition to whether school readiness predictors influenced grade retention at both the child- and school-level above and beyond background and demographic factors using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort. The results suggested that grade retention was most likely by third grade. Importantly, results indicated that school readiness predictors, specifically low early academic skills (i.e. reading, math, and general knowledge skills), were the strongest predictors of grade retention. When school readiness predictors were controlled for, within schools, variables previously shown to be risk factors (e.g. ethnicity and language spoken at home) were protective factors, underscoring the importance of including school readiness factors when studying grade retention and examining school- and child-level effects.",
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AB - The literature on predictors and effects of grade retention is vast. Known predictors of grade retention include gender, ethnicity, poverty, parental education, and academic skills. The subsequent effects of grade retention are hotly debated; however, many studies have shown grade retention to be detrimental to the student. The current study used a multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to investigate when grade retention is most likely in addition to whether school readiness predictors influenced grade retention at both the child- and school-level above and beyond background and demographic factors using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort. The results suggested that grade retention was most likely by third grade. Importantly, results indicated that school readiness predictors, specifically low early academic skills (i.e. reading, math, and general knowledge skills), were the strongest predictors of grade retention. When school readiness predictors were controlled for, within schools, variables previously shown to be risk factors (e.g. ethnicity and language spoken at home) were protective factors, underscoring the importance of including school readiness factors when studying grade retention and examining school- and child-level effects.

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