Dynamics of two-strain influenza with isolation and partial cross-immunity

M. Nuño, Z. Feng, M. Martcheva, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

80 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The time evolution of the influenza A virus is linked to a nonfixed landscape driven by interactions between hosts and competing influenza strains. Herd-immunity, cross-immunity, and age-structure are among the factors that have been shown to support strain coexistence and/or disease oscillations. In this study, we put two influenza strains under various levels of (interference) competition. We establish that cross-immunity and host isolation lead to periodic epidemic outbreaks (sustained oscillations) in this multistrain system. We compute the isolation reproductive number for each strain (ℜ i) independently, as well as for the full system (ℜ q), and show that when ℜ q < 1, both strains die out. Subthreshold coexistence driven by cross-immunity is possible even when the isolation reproductive number of one strain is below 1. Conditions that guarantee a winning type or coexistence are established in general. Oscillatory coexistence is established via Hopf bifurcation theory and confirmed via numerical simulations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)964-982
Number of pages19
JournalSIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics
Volume65
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 2005

Fingerprint

Influenza
Immunity
Isolation
Partial
Coexistence
Reproductive number
Hopf bifurcation
Oscillation
Age Structure
Viruses
Bifurcation Theory
Hopf Bifurcation
Virus
Die
Interference
Computer simulation
Numerical Simulation
Interaction

Keywords

  • Bifurcation
  • Coexistence
  • Cross-immunity
  • Influenza
  • Isolation
  • Multiple strains
  • Oscillations
  • Stability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mathematics(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

Cite this

Dynamics of two-strain influenza with isolation and partial cross-immunity. / Nuño, M.; Feng, Z.; Martcheva, M.; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos.

In: SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, Vol. 65, No. 3, 2005, p. 964-982.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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