TY - JOUR
T1 - Does a detailed model of the electricity grid matter? Estimating the impacts of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
AU - Shawhan, Daniel L.
AU - Taber, John T.
AU - Shi, Di
AU - Zimmerman, Ray D.
AU - Yan, Jubo
AU - Marquet, Charles M.
AU - Qi, Yingying
AU - Mao, Biao
AU - Schuler, Richard E.
AU - Schulze, William D.
AU - Tylavsky, Daniel
N1 - Funding Information:
We express our appreciation for the support provided by the U.S. Department of Energy through its Consortium for Electricity Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS), the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), the National Science Foundation under the Industry/University Cooperative Research Center program, NSF and DOE through their Center for Ultra-wide-area Resilient Electric Energy Transmission Networks (CURENT), and the Power Systems Engineering Research Center (PSERC) and its industry members. We would also like to thank Energy Visuals, Inc. for providing important portions of the data used in this study. We thank editors Charles Mason, Scott Atkinson, and Rick Horan; an anonymous reviewer; Timothy Mount and Robert Thomas of Cornell University; Rana Mukerji, Henry Chao, Steve Whitley, and Michael Swider of the NYISO; and Karen Palmer, Anthony Paul, and Dallas Burtraw at Resources for the Future for helpful comments.
PY - 2014/1
Y1 - 2014/1
N2 - The consequences of environmental and energy policies in the U.S. can be severely constrained by physical limits of the electric power grid. Flows do not follow the shortest path but are distributed over all lines in accordance with the laws of physics, so grid operators must select which generation units to operate at each moment, not only to minimize production costs, but also to prevent the system from collapsing because of line overloads. Because of the complexity of power grid operation, computing limitations have until very recently made it impossible to solve a policy analysis or planning model that combines realistic modeling of flows with a detailed transmission system model and the prediction of generator investment and retirement. We construct and solve a model of the eastern US and Canada that combines these characteristics. Then, because a smaller model would be usable for some additional purposes, we explore the effects of transmission model simplification on the accuracy of simulation results. To evaluate the amount of detail necessary, we simulate the short- and long-term effects of imposing a price on the carbon dioxide emissions from the power plants in nine northeastern US states, as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative does. We consider three grid models that simplify the actual 62,000-node system to varying degrees. Our 5000-node model matches the 62,000-node model very closely. We use it as the basis for evaluating the more simplified models: a 300-node model and a model with just one node, i.e. no transmission constraints. With each of the three models, we predict the carbon dioxide emission impacts, electricity price impacts, and generator entry and exit impacts of the emission price, over the next 20 years. We find that most of the impact predictions produced by the 300- and one-node models differ from those of the 5000-node model by more than 20%, and some by much more. Fortunately, the 5000-node model, and others with its combination of transmission detail, realistic flows, entry prediction, and retirement prediction can be used for many useful purposes.
AB - The consequences of environmental and energy policies in the U.S. can be severely constrained by physical limits of the electric power grid. Flows do not follow the shortest path but are distributed over all lines in accordance with the laws of physics, so grid operators must select which generation units to operate at each moment, not only to minimize production costs, but also to prevent the system from collapsing because of line overloads. Because of the complexity of power grid operation, computing limitations have until very recently made it impossible to solve a policy analysis or planning model that combines realistic modeling of flows with a detailed transmission system model and the prediction of generator investment and retirement. We construct and solve a model of the eastern US and Canada that combines these characteristics. Then, because a smaller model would be usable for some additional purposes, we explore the effects of transmission model simplification on the accuracy of simulation results. To evaluate the amount of detail necessary, we simulate the short- and long-term effects of imposing a price on the carbon dioxide emissions from the power plants in nine northeastern US states, as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative does. We consider three grid models that simplify the actual 62,000-node system to varying degrees. Our 5000-node model matches the 62,000-node model very closely. We use it as the basis for evaluating the more simplified models: a 300-node model and a model with just one node, i.e. no transmission constraints. With each of the three models, we predict the carbon dioxide emission impacts, electricity price impacts, and generator entry and exit impacts of the emission price, over the next 20 years. We find that most of the impact predictions produced by the 300- and one-node models differ from those of the 5000-node model by more than 20%, and some by much more. Fortunately, the 5000-node model, and others with its combination of transmission detail, realistic flows, entry prediction, and retirement prediction can be used for many useful purposes.
KW - Carbon dioxide
KW - Cost-benefit analysis
KW - Electricity market
KW - Long term
KW - Simulation modeling
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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84892988498&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2013.11.015
DO - 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2013.11.015
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84892988498
SN - 0928-7655
VL - 36
SP - 191
EP - 207
JO - Resource and Energy Economics
JF - Resource and Energy Economics
IS - 1
ER -