Do deterrence and social-control theories predict driving after drinking 15 years after a DWI conviction?

Sandra C. Lapham, Michael Todd

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective: This study investigates the utility of deterrence and social-control theories for prospective prediction of driving-while-impaired (DWI) outcomes of first-time DWI offenders. Method: The sample consisted of a subset of 544 convicted first-time DWI offenders (N = 337 females) who were interviewed 5 and 15 years after referral to a Screening Program in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Variables collected at the 5-year (initial) interview were used in structural equation models to predict past 3-months, self-reported DWI at the 15-year follow-up (follow-up) interview. These variables represented domains defined by deterrence and social-control theories of DWI behavior, with one model corresponding to deterrence theory and one to social-control theory. Results: Both models fit the data. DWI jail time was positively related to perceived enforcement, which was negatively but not significantly related to self-reported DWI. Neither jail time for DWI nor perceived likelihood of arrest was linearly related to self-reported DWI at follow-up. Interactions between jail time and prior DWI behavior indicated relatively weaker associations between initial and 15-year DWI for those reporting more jail time. Conclusion: Our prospective study demonstrated that for this convicted DWI offender cohort, classic formulations of deterrence and social-control theories did not account for DWI. However, results suggest that punishment may decrease the likelihood of DWI recidivism.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)142-151
Number of pages10
JournalAccident Analysis and Prevention
Volume45
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2012
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Prisons
control theory
deterrence
social control
Control theory
offender
Interviews
Punishment
Structural Models
interview
structural model
penalty
Screening
Referral and Consultation
Mexico
Prospective Studies
time
Driving Under the Influence
Social Theory
interaction

Keywords

  • Deterrence
  • Driving under the influence (DUI)
  • Driving while intoxicated
  • DWI
  • Impaired driving
  • Social-control
  • Theory

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Human Factors and Ergonomics
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Law

Cite this

Do deterrence and social-control theories predict driving after drinking 15 years after a DWI conviction? / Lapham, Sandra C.; Todd, Michael.

In: Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 45, 01.03.2012, p. 142-151.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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