TY - JOUR
T1 - Dissecting the Equity Premium
AU - Beason, Tyler
AU - Schreindorfer, David
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.
PY - 2022/8
Y1 - 2022/8
N2 - We use option prices and realized returns to decompose risk premia into different parts of the return state space. In the data, 8/10 of the average equity premium is attributable to monthly returns below 210%, but returns below 230% matter very little. In contrast, prominent asset pricing models based on habits, long-run risks, rare disasters, undiversifiable idiosyncratic risk, and constrained intermediaries attribute the premium predominantly to returns above 210% or to the extreme left tail. We show that the discrepancy arises from an unrealistically small price of risk for stock market tail events in the models.
AB - We use option prices and realized returns to decompose risk premia into different parts of the return state space. In the data, 8/10 of the average equity premium is attributable to monthly returns below 210%, but returns below 230% matter very little. In contrast, prominent asset pricing models based on habits, long-run risks, rare disasters, undiversifiable idiosyncratic risk, and constrained intermediaries attribute the premium predominantly to returns above 210% or to the extreme left tail. We show that the discrepancy arises from an unrealistically small price of risk for stock market tail events in the models.
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U2 - 10.1086/720396
DO - 10.1086/720396
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85131348550
SN - 0022-3808
VL - 130
SP - 2203
EP - 2222
JO - Journal of Political Economy
JF - Journal of Political Economy
IS - 8
ER -