Determining optimal fuel strategies under uncertainty

In preparation for a hurricane, individuals affected often are required to evacuate. Evacuations can cause high increases in the demand for gasoline fuel. The purpose of this research is to determine alternate delivery locations and times for fuel vessels scheduled to arrive at a port that is impacted by an approaching hurricane. Motivated by the impact of Hurricane Irma in Florida, we develop a multi-period stochastic scheduling model that incorporates hurricane advisories, scheduled fuel deliveries, maritime port storage capacity and vessel capacity in a maritime port network. Our model determines the best delivery schedule based on multiple objectives. The first minimizes total unmet demand at each port. The second objective captures inequity in unmet demand across the port network. We conduct a numerical study based on fuel delivery data from maritime ports in Florida. The results show we are able to determine alternative delivery schedules for each vessel. One of the key findings is that the port availability is the driving factor in determining the vessel schedules.