Cost and schedule predictability performance for large rig horizontal directional drilling installations

As a departure from the current state of practice, this paper presents an evaluation of the cost and schedule performance of large rig horizontal directional drilling projects based on the early and accurate prediction of actual outcomes, as opposed to the prevalent and reactive evaluation of total cost and schedule deviations at completion. Getting to know early in the delivery process the actual outcomes of a project enables project and corporate managers to undertake informed and proactive actions in a timely manner. To enable the assessment of predictability performance, a novel Predictability Index metric is proposed, investigated, and discussed. Based on the statistical analysis of data from recently completed directional drilling projects, the predictability of such projects is characterized, and major influencing factors unveiled. Real world projects are discussed in order to illustrate the tangible benefits associated with the assessment of predictability performance to the project delivery process.