Comparing vector-host and SIR models for dengue transmission

Abhishek Pandey, Anuj Mubayi, Jan Medlock

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

41 Scopus citations

Abstract

Various simple mathematical models have been used to investigate dengue transmission. Some of these models explicitly model the mosquito population, while others model the mosquitoes implicitly in the transmission term. We study the impact of modeling assumptions on the dynamics of dengue in Thailand by fitting dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) data to simple vector-host and SIR models using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The parameter estimates obtained for both models were consistent with previous studies. Most importantly, model selection found that the SIR model was substantially better than the vector-host model for the DHF data from Thailand. Therefore, explicitly incorporating the mosquito population may not be necessary in modeling dengue transmission for some populations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)252-259
Number of pages8
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume246
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2013
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Dengue
  • Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
  • Mathematical model
  • Parameter estimation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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