TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate-induced cross-border migration and change in demographic structure
AU - Chen, Joyce
AU - Mueller, Valerie
N1 - Funding Information:
Support from the National Science Foundation via the Belmont Forum/IGFA Program (ICER-1342644) and the Mershon Center for International Security Studies at The Ohio State University is gratefully acknowledged.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
PY - 2019/12/1
Y1 - 2019/12/1
N2 - As climate change threatens livelihoods in Bangladesh, migration to neighboring countries in South Asia may accelerate. We use multiple types of data to predict how changes in the environment affect cross-border migration. Nationally representative migration data are combined with remote-sensing measures of flooding and rainfall and in situ measures of monsoon onset, temperature, radiation, and soil salinity to characterize environmental migration patterns. We further evaluate which groups are more susceptible to cross-border migration to examine how environmental factors shape the demographic composition of the country. We find migration to neighboring countries declines with short-term, adverse weather but increases with soil salinity. The soil salinity effect remains particularly persistent among poorer households. Investments targeting risks faced by the poor and non-poor remain crucial, as retention of the earnings skills, and experience of the latter enhances national resilience.
AB - As climate change threatens livelihoods in Bangladesh, migration to neighboring countries in South Asia may accelerate. We use multiple types of data to predict how changes in the environment affect cross-border migration. Nationally representative migration data are combined with remote-sensing measures of flooding and rainfall and in situ measures of monsoon onset, temperature, radiation, and soil salinity to characterize environmental migration patterns. We further evaluate which groups are more susceptible to cross-border migration to examine how environmental factors shape the demographic composition of the country. We find migration to neighboring countries declines with short-term, adverse weather but increases with soil salinity. The soil salinity effect remains particularly persistent among poorer households. Investments targeting risks faced by the poor and non-poor remain crucial, as retention of the earnings skills, and experience of the latter enhances national resilience.
KW - Bangladesh
KW - Climate change
KW - Cross-border migration
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U2 - 10.1007/s11111-019-00328-3
DO - 10.1007/s11111-019-00328-3
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85075955603
SN - 0199-0039
VL - 41
SP - 98
EP - 125
JO - Population and Environment
JF - Population and Environment
IS - 2
ER -