Climate change policy targets and the role of technological change

Marcus Janssen, Bert De Vries

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we present results of simulation experiments with the TIME-model on the issue of mitigation strategies with regard to greenhouse gases. The TIME-model is an integrated system dynamics world energy model that takes into account the fact that the system has an inbuilt inertia and endogenous learning-by-doing dynamics, besides the more common elements of price-induced demand response and fuel substitution. First, we present four scenarios to highlight the importance of assumptions on innovations in energy technology in assessing the extent to which CO2 emissions have to be reduced. The inertia of the energy system seems to make a rise of CO2 emissions in the short term almost unavoidable. It is concluded that for the population and economic growth assumptions of the IPCC IS92a scenario, only a combination of supply- and demand-side oriented technological innovations in combination with policy measures can bring the target of CO2-concentration stabilization at 550 ppmv by the year 2100 within reach. This will probably be associated with a temporary increase in the overall energy expenditures in the world economy. Postponing the policy measures will be more disadvantageous, and less innovation in energy technology will happen.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-28
Number of pages28
JournalClimatic Change
Volume46
Issue number1-2
StatePublished - 2000
Externally publishedYes

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technological change
Climate change
innovation
Innovation
inertia
climate change
energy
Greenhouse gases
expenditure
economic growth
population growth
Dynamical systems
stabilization
substitution
greenhouse gas
Substitution reactions
mitigation
Stabilization
learning
Economics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Global and Planetary Change

Cite this

Climate change policy targets and the role of technological change. / Janssen, Marcus; De Vries, Bert.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 46, No. 1-2, 2000, p. 1-28.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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