Choice inconsistencies among the elderly

Evidence from plan choice in the Medicare part D program: Comment

Jonathan Ketcham, Nicolai Kuminoff, Christopher A. Powers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Consumers' enrollment decisions in Medicare Part D can be explained by Abaluck and Gruber's (2011) model of utility maximization with psychological biases or by a neoclassical version of their model that precludes such biases. We evaluate these competing hypotheses by applying nonparametric tests of utility maximization and model validation tests to administrative data. We find that 79 percent of enrollment decisions from 2006 to 2010 satisfied basic axioms of consumer theory under the assumption of full information. The validation tests provide evidence against widespread psychological biases. In particular, we find that precluding psychological biases improves the structural model's out-of-sample predictions for consumer behavior.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3932-3961
Number of pages30
JournalAmerican Economic Review
Volume106
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2016

Fingerprint

Medicare
Inconsistency
Psychological
Enrollment
Utility maximization
Structural model
Consumer behaviour
Nonparametric test
Out-of-sample forecasting
Model validation
Administrative data
Consumer theory
Axioms

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

Choice inconsistencies among the elderly : Evidence from plan choice in the Medicare part D program: Comment. / Ketcham, Jonathan; Kuminoff, Nicolai; Powers, Christopher A.

In: American Economic Review, Vol. 106, No. 12, 01.12.2016, p. 3932-3961.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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