Can twitter help predict firm-level earnings and stock returns?

Eli Bartov, Lucile Faurel, Partha S. Mohanram

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

44 Scopus citations

Abstract

Prior research has examined how companies exploit Twitter in communicating with investors, and whether Twitter activity predicts the stock market as a whole. We test whether opinions of individuals tweeted just prior to a firm’s earnings announcement predict its earnings and announcement returns. Using a broad sample from 2009 to 2012, we find that the aggregate opinion from individual tweets successfully predicts a firm’s forthcoming quarterly earnings and announcement returns. These results hold for tweets that convey original information, as well as tweets that disseminate existing information, and are stronger for tweets providing information directly related to firm fundamentals and stock trading. Importantly, our results hold even after controlling for concurrent information or opinion from traditional media sources, and are stronger for firms in weaker information environments. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the aggregate opinion from individual tweets when assessing a stock’s future prospects and value.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)25-57
Number of pages33
JournalAccounting Review
Volume93
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2018

Keywords

  • Abnormal stock returns
  • Analyst earnings forecast
  • Earnings
  • Social media
  • Twitter
  • Wisdom of Crowds

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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