Assessment of operation plan performance under uncertainty

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterpeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

A plan of military air operations contains a number of sequential and/or parallel tasks. Given information of the battlefield situation (including the status estimate of tasks) during the execution of a plan, it is necessary to assess the situation impact on the plan, especially whether the entire plan would be delayed. Plan performance assessment fuses the status estimate of tasks into the status estimate of the entire plan. The performance assessment of the plan assists the commander of air operations to decide the need for plan modification to assure the goal of air operations. The performance assessment of the plan must deal with uncertainty in the status estimate of tasks in the plan. This paper presents a comparative study of two information fusion techniques that infer the status estimate of a plan from the status estimate of tasks under uncertainty: the decomposition technique with low computational cost and the composition technique with high computational cost. The testing results of these techniques indicate the similar estimation accuracy of two techniques. Due to its low computational cost, the decomposition technique is recommended. Guidelines for applying the decomposition technique to a large-scale, complex plan of the tasks are also provided.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)256-261
Number of pages6
JournalIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews
Volume31
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2001

Keywords

  • Information fusion
  • Plan assessment
  • Probabilistic inference
  • Uncertainty reasoning

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Software
  • Information Systems
  • Human-Computer Interaction
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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