Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises?

Duan Biggs, Reinette Biggs, Vasilis Dakos, Robert J. Scholes, Michael Schoon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

42 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An increase in the frequency and intensity of environmental crises associated with accelerating human-induced global change is of substantial concern to policy makers. The potential impacts, especially on the poor, are exacerbated in an increasingly connected world that enables the emergence of crises that are coupled in time and space. We discuss two factors that can interact to contribute to such an increased concatenation of crises: (1) the increasing strength of global vs. local drivers of change, so that changes become increasingly synchronized; and (2) unprecedented potential for the propagation of crises, and an enhanced risk of management interventions in one region becoming drivers elsewhere, because of increased connectivity. We discuss the oil-food-financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 as an example of a concatenated crisis with origin and ultimate impacts in far removed parts of the globe. The potential for a future of concatenated shocks requires adaptations in science and governance including (a) an increased tolerance of uncertainty and surprise, (b) strengthening capacity for early detection and response to shocks, and (c) flexibility in response to enable adaptation and learning.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalEcology and Society
Volume16
Issue number2
StatePublished - 2011

Fingerprint

financial crisis
global change
connectivity
tolerance
learning
food
oil
detection
world
policy
science

Keywords

  • Concatenation
  • Connectivity
  • Crisis
  • Disaster
  • Food price crisis
  • Governance
  • Learning
  • Thresholds

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology

Cite this

Biggs, D., Biggs, R., Dakos, V., Scholes, R. J., & Schoon, M. (2011). Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises? Ecology and Society, 16(2).

Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises? / Biggs, Duan; Biggs, Reinette; Dakos, Vasilis; Scholes, Robert J.; Schoon, Michael.

In: Ecology and Society, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2011.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Biggs, D, Biggs, R, Dakos, V, Scholes, RJ & Schoon, M 2011, 'Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises?', Ecology and Society, vol. 16, no. 2.
Biggs, Duan ; Biggs, Reinette ; Dakos, Vasilis ; Scholes, Robert J. ; Schoon, Michael. / Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises?. In: Ecology and Society. 2011 ; Vol. 16, No. 2.
@article{4ea09c387954422c8e57ea71269770ad,
title = "Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises?",
abstract = "An increase in the frequency and intensity of environmental crises associated with accelerating human-induced global change is of substantial concern to policy makers. The potential impacts, especially on the poor, are exacerbated in an increasingly connected world that enables the emergence of crises that are coupled in time and space. We discuss two factors that can interact to contribute to such an increased concatenation of crises: (1) the increasing strength of global vs. local drivers of change, so that changes become increasingly synchronized; and (2) unprecedented potential for the propagation of crises, and an enhanced risk of management interventions in one region becoming drivers elsewhere, because of increased connectivity. We discuss the oil-food-financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 as an example of a concatenated crisis with origin and ultimate impacts in far removed parts of the globe. The potential for a future of concatenated shocks requires adaptations in science and governance including (a) an increased tolerance of uncertainty and surprise, (b) strengthening capacity for early detection and response to shocks, and (c) flexibility in response to enable adaptation and learning.",
keywords = "Concatenation, Connectivity, Crisis, Disaster, Food price crisis, Governance, Learning, Thresholds",
author = "Duan Biggs and Reinette Biggs and Vasilis Dakos and Scholes, {Robert J.} and Michael Schoon",
year = "2011",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "16",
journal = "Ecology and Society",
issn = "1708-3087",
publisher = "The Resilience Alliance",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises?

AU - Biggs, Duan

AU - Biggs, Reinette

AU - Dakos, Vasilis

AU - Scholes, Robert J.

AU - Schoon, Michael

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - An increase in the frequency and intensity of environmental crises associated with accelerating human-induced global change is of substantial concern to policy makers. The potential impacts, especially on the poor, are exacerbated in an increasingly connected world that enables the emergence of crises that are coupled in time and space. We discuss two factors that can interact to contribute to such an increased concatenation of crises: (1) the increasing strength of global vs. local drivers of change, so that changes become increasingly synchronized; and (2) unprecedented potential for the propagation of crises, and an enhanced risk of management interventions in one region becoming drivers elsewhere, because of increased connectivity. We discuss the oil-food-financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 as an example of a concatenated crisis with origin and ultimate impacts in far removed parts of the globe. The potential for a future of concatenated shocks requires adaptations in science and governance including (a) an increased tolerance of uncertainty and surprise, (b) strengthening capacity for early detection and response to shocks, and (c) flexibility in response to enable adaptation and learning.

AB - An increase in the frequency and intensity of environmental crises associated with accelerating human-induced global change is of substantial concern to policy makers. The potential impacts, especially on the poor, are exacerbated in an increasingly connected world that enables the emergence of crises that are coupled in time and space. We discuss two factors that can interact to contribute to such an increased concatenation of crises: (1) the increasing strength of global vs. local drivers of change, so that changes become increasingly synchronized; and (2) unprecedented potential for the propagation of crises, and an enhanced risk of management interventions in one region becoming drivers elsewhere, because of increased connectivity. We discuss the oil-food-financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 as an example of a concatenated crisis with origin and ultimate impacts in far removed parts of the globe. The potential for a future of concatenated shocks requires adaptations in science and governance including (a) an increased tolerance of uncertainty and surprise, (b) strengthening capacity for early detection and response to shocks, and (c) flexibility in response to enable adaptation and learning.

KW - Concatenation

KW - Connectivity

KW - Crisis

KW - Disaster

KW - Food price crisis

KW - Governance

KW - Learning

KW - Thresholds

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79960016375&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79960016375&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

VL - 16

JO - Ecology and Society

JF - Ecology and Society

SN - 1708-3087

IS - 2

ER -