An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma

Weijie Wang, Shaoping Wang, Yixuan Geng, Yajing Qiao, Teresa Wu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Plasma glucose concentration (PGC) and plasma insulin concentration (PIC) are two essential metrics for diabetic regulation, but difficult to be measured directly. Often, PGC and PIC are estimated from continuous glucose monitoring and insulin delivery data. Nevertheless, the inter-individual variability and external disturbance (e.g. carbohydrate intake) bring challenges for accurate estimations. This study is to estimate PGC and PIC adaptively by identifying personalized parameters and external disturbances. An observable glucose-insulin (OGI) dynamic model is established to describe insulin absorption, glucose regulation, and glucose transport. The model parameters and disturbances can be extended to observable state variables and be identified dynamically by Bayesian filtering estimators. Two basic Gaussian noise based Bayesian filtering estimators, extended Kalman filtering (EKF) and unscented Kalman filtering (UKF), are implemented. Recognizing the prevalence of non-Gaussian noise, in this study, two new filtering estimators: particle filtering with Gaussian noise (PFG), and particle filtering with mixed non-Gaussian noise (PFM) are designed and implemented. The proposed OGI model in conjunction with the estimators is evaluated using the data from 30 in-silico subjects and 10 human participants. For in-silico subjects, the OGI with PFM estimator has the ability to estimate PIC and PGC adaptively, achieving RMSE of PIC 9.49 ± 3.81 mU/L, and PGC 0.89 ± 0.19 mmol/L. For human, the OGI with PFM has the promise to identify disturbances (95.46% ± 0.65% accurate rate of meal identification). OGI model provides a way to fully personalize the parameters and external disturbances in real time, and has potential clinical utility for artificial pancreas.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)8499-8523
Number of pages25
JournalMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume18
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - 2021

Keywords

  • Artificial pancreas
  • Bayesian filter
  • Model personalization
  • Plasma glucose concentration
  • Plasma insulin concentration

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Computational Mathematics
  • Applied Mathematics

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