Abstract

An actuarial method has been developed for determining energy savings from retrofits from energy use data for a number of buildings. This method should be contrasted with the traditional method of using pre- and post-retrofit data on the same building. The actuarial approach derives, from a database, probability density functions (PDFs) for energy savings from retrofits by creating peer groups for the user's pre/post buildings. From the energy use distribution of the two groups, the savings PDF is derived. This provides the basis for engineering analysis as well as financial risk analysis, leading to investment decisions. Several technical issues are addressed: the savings PDF is obtained from the pre- and post-PDF through a convolution. Smoothing using kernel density estimation is applied to make the PDF more realistic. The number of buildings in a peer group can be increased through a neighborhood methodology. Correlations between pre- and post-buildings are addressed to improve the savings PDF. Sample size effects are addressed through the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests and quantile-quantile plots.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationASHRAE Transactions
PublisherAmer. Soc. Heating, Ref. Air-Conditoning Eng. Inc.
Pages308-315
Number of pages8
Volume120
EditionPART 1
ISBN (Print)9781936504701
StatePublished - 2014
Event2014 ASHRAE Winter Conference - New York, NY, United States
Duration: Jan 18 2014Jan 22 2014

Other

Other2014 ASHRAE Winter Conference
CountryUnited States
CityNew York, NY
Period1/18/141/22/14

Fingerprint

Probability density function
Energy conservation
Risk analysis
Convolution

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Building and Construction

Cite this

Subbarao, K., Etingov, P., & Reddy, T. A. (2014). An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings. In ASHRAE Transactions (PART 1 ed., Vol. 120, pp. 308-315). Amer. Soc. Heating, Ref. Air-Conditoning Eng. Inc..

An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings. / Subbarao, Kris; Etingov, Pavel; Reddy, T Agami.

ASHRAE Transactions. Vol. 120 PART 1. ed. Amer. Soc. Heating, Ref. Air-Conditoning Eng. Inc., 2014. p. 308-315.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Subbarao, K, Etingov, P & Reddy, TA 2014, An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings. in ASHRAE Transactions. PART 1 edn, vol. 120, Amer. Soc. Heating, Ref. Air-Conditoning Eng. Inc., pp. 308-315, 2014 ASHRAE Winter Conference, New York, NY, United States, 1/18/14.
Subbarao K, Etingov P, Reddy TA. An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings. In ASHRAE Transactions. PART 1 ed. Vol. 120. Amer. Soc. Heating, Ref. Air-Conditoning Eng. Inc. 2014. p. 308-315
Subbarao, Kris ; Etingov, Pavel ; Reddy, T Agami. / An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings. ASHRAE Transactions. Vol. 120 PART 1. ed. Amer. Soc. Heating, Ref. Air-Conditoning Eng. Inc., 2014. pp. 308-315
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