Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts

Dwight R. Sanders, Mark R. Manfredo, Keith Boris

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and coal supplies are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification- or directional-based measures. Results suggest the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supply forecasts for U.S. domestic energy products are generally more accurate than a naïve alternative. There is only limited evidence of bias and inefficiency in the forecasts; although there is some evidence of error repetition. Directional forecasts for supply changes are statistically better than random, but they generally do not outperform a naïve forecast.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1192-1207
Number of pages16
JournalEnergy Economics
Volume30
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1 2008

Keywords

  • Energy supply
  • Forecast evaluation
  • U.S. Department of Energy forecasts

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Energy(all)

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this