@article{097dab90f4654f9f94786a5bbc29d31c,
title = "A Synoptic view of the third uniform California earthquake rupture forecast (UCERF3)",
abstract = "Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake-producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long-Term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short-Term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake-clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self-consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short-Term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short-Term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault-based models: long-Term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg-Richter scaling, and short-Term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.",
author = "Field, {Edward H.} and Jordan, {Thomas H.} and Page, {Morgan T.} and Milner, {Kevin R.} and Shaw, {Bruce E.} and Dawson, {Timothy E.} and Biasi, {Glenn P.} and Tom Parsons and Hardebeck, {Jeanne L.} and Michael, {Andrew J.} and Weldon, {Ray J.} and Powers, {Peter M.} and Johnson, {Kaj M.} and Yuehua Zeng and Felzer, {Karen R.} and {Van Der Elst}, Nicholas and Christopher Madden and Ramon Arrowsmith and Werner, {Maximilian J.} and Thatcher, {Wayne R.}",
note = "Funding Information: The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) development was supported by the California Earthquake Authority, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), USGS-Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Co-operative Agreement G12AC20038, and National Science Foundation (NSF)-SCEC Cooperative Agreement EAR-1033462. Calculations were performed at the Texas Advanced Computing Center and the USC Center for High-Performance Computing and Communications. We thank the USGS Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis for supporting workshops on UCERF3-epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) development, and the W. M. Keck Foundation for supporting the integration of UCERF3 into the Collaboratory for Interseismic Modeling and Simulation. We also thank Michael Blanpied, Matt Gerstenberger, and an anonymous individual for constructive review comments. The SCEC Contribution Number for this article is 7165.",
year = "2017",
month = sep,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1785/0220170045",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "88",
pages = "1259--1267",
journal = "Seismological Research Letters",
issn = "0895-0695",
publisher = "ES-SSA by the MIT Graphic Arts Services",
number = "5",
}