A spatio-temporal analysis approach for short-term forecast of wind farm generation

Miao He, Lei Yang, Junshan Zhang, Vijay Vittal

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

62 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this paper, short-term forecast of wind farm generation is investigated by applying spatio-temporal analysis to extensive measurement data collected from a large wind farm where multiple classes of wind turbines are installed. Specifically, using the data of the wind turbines' power outputs recorded across two consecutive years, graph-learning based spatio-temporal analysis is carried out to characterize the statistical distribution and quantify the level crossing rate of the wind farm's aggregate power output. Built on these characterizations, finite-state Markov chains are constructed for each epoch of three hours and for each individual month, which accounts for the diurnal non-stationarity and the seasonality of wind farm generation. Short-term distributional forecasts and a point forecast are then derived by using the Markov chains and ramp trend information. The distributional forecast can be utilized to study stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch problems via a Markovian approach. The developed Markov-chain-based distributional forecasts are compared with existing approaches based on high-order autoregressive models and Markov chains by uniform quantization, and the devised point forecasts are compared with persistence forecasts and high-order autoregressive model-based point forecasts. Numerical test results demonstrate the improved performance of the Markov chains developed by spatio-temporal analysis over existing approaches.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number6727513
Pages (from-to)1611-1622
Number of pages12
JournalIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume29
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2014

Keywords

  • Distributional forecast
  • Markov chains
  • graphical learning
  • point forecast
  • short-term wind power forecast
  • spatio-temporal analysis
  • wind farm

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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