A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

Margaret Garcia, K. Portney, S. Islam

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human and hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding the choice of modeling structure, scope, and detail. A shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope, and detail to remain contingent and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate its utility by exploring a question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decreases during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available supplies. This distinction between the two policies was not apparent using a traditional non-coupled model.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)8289-8335
Number of pages47
JournalHydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Volume12
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 24 2015
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

hydrological modeling
modeling
oscillation
human behavior
hydrological cycle
water stress
transform
human activity
water supply
policy
demand
effect

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Earth-Surface Processes

Cite this

A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process. / Garcia, Margaret; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 12, No. 8, 24.08.2015, p. 8289-8335.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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