A neural network approach to local downscaling of GCM output for assessing wind power implications of climate change

D. J. Sailor, T. Hu, X. Li, J. N. Rosen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

68 Scopus citations

Abstract

A methodology is presented for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) output to predict surface wind speeds at scales of interest in the wind power industry under expected future climatic conditions. The approach involves a combination of Neural Network tools and traditional weather forecasting techniques. A Neural Network transfer function is developed to relate local wind speed observations to large scale GCM predictions of atmospheric properties under current climatic conditions. By assuming the invariability of this transfer function under conditions of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, the resulting transfer function is then applied to GCM output for a transient run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. This methodology is applied to three test sites in regions relevant to the wind power industry-one in Texas and two in California. Changes in daily mean wind speeds at each location are presented and discussed with respect to potential implications for wind power generation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)359-378
Number of pages20
JournalRenewable Energy
Volume19
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2000
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

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