A necessary and sufficient condition for reaching a consensus using DeGroot’s method

Roger L. Berger

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

135 Scopus citations

Abstract

DeGroot (1974) proposed a model in which a group of k individuals might reach a consensus on a common subjective probability distribution for an unknown parameter. This paper presents a necessary and sufficient condition under which a consensus will be reached by using DeGroot’s method. This work corrects an incorrect statement in the original paper about the conditions needed for a consensus to be reached. The condition for a consensus to be reached is straightforward to check and yields the value of the consensus, if one is reached.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)415-418
Number of pages4
JournalJournal of the American Statistical Association
Volume76
Issue number374
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1981

Keywords

  • Markov chain
  • Opinion pool
  • Stochastic matrix
  • Subjective probability distribution

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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