A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic

Joan S. Horwitz; Douglas C. Montgomery

doi:10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1

A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic

Joan S. Horwitz, Douglas C. Montgomery

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	189-198
Number of pages	10
Journal	Computers in Biology and Medicine
Volume	4
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1
State	Published - Dec 1974
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Epidemics
Mathematical model
Preventive medicine
Rubella
Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Health Informatics
Computer Science Applications

Access to Document

10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1

Cite this

@article{c73395e1d86544d98c65b82e2b155e07,

title = "A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic",

abstract = "This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.",

keywords = "Epidemics, Mathematical model, Preventive medicine, Rubella, Simulation",

author = "Horwitz, {Joan S.} and Montgomery, {Douglas C.}",

year = "1974",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "4",

pages = "189--198",

journal = "Computers in Biology and Medicine",

issn = "0010-4825",

publisher = "Elsevier Limited",

number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic

AU - Horwitz, Joan S.

AU - Montgomery, Douglas C.

PY - 1974/12

Y1 - 1974/12

N2 - This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.

AB - This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.

KW - Epidemics

KW - Mathematical model

KW - Preventive medicine

KW - Rubella

KW - Simulation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0016355605&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0016355605&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1

DO - 10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1

M3 - Article

C2 - 4455437

AN - SCOPUS:0016355605

SN - 0010-4825

VL - 4

SP - 189

EP - 198

JO - Computers in Biology and Medicine

JF - Computers in Biology and Medicine

IS - 2

ER -

A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this