This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.
- Mathematical model
- Preventive medicine
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Computer Science Applications
- Health Informatics