A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic

Joan S. Horwitz, Douglas Montgomery

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)189-198
Number of pages10
JournalComputers in Biology and Medicine
Volume4
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 1974
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Rubella
Computer Simulation
Computer simulation
Birth Rate
Difference equations
Vaccination
Mortality
Population

Keywords

  • Epidemics
  • Mathematical model
  • Preventive medicine
  • Rubella
  • Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science Applications

Cite this

A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic. / Horwitz, Joan S.; Montgomery, Douglas.

In: Computers in Biology and Medicine, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1974, p. 189-198.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{c73395e1d86544d98c65b82e2b155e07,
title = "A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic",
abstract = "This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.",
keywords = "Epidemics, Mathematical model, Preventive medicine, Rubella, Simulation",
author = "Horwitz, {Joan S.} and Douglas Montgomery",
year = "1974",
doi = "10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "4",
pages = "189--198",
journal = "Computers in Biology and Medicine",
issn = "0010-4825",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic

AU - Horwitz, Joan S.

AU - Montgomery, Douglas

PY - 1974

Y1 - 1974

N2 - This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.

AB - This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.

KW - Epidemics

KW - Mathematical model

KW - Preventive medicine

KW - Rubella

KW - Simulation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0016355605&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0016355605&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1

DO - 10.1016/0010-4825(74)90020-1

M3 - Article

VL - 4

SP - 189

EP - 198

JO - Computers in Biology and Medicine

JF - Computers in Biology and Medicine

SN - 0010-4825

IS - 2

ER -