A computer simulation model of a rubella epidemic

Joan S. Horwitz, Douglas C. Montgomery

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents a deterministic computer simulation model of the rubella epidemic process. The model consists of four difference equations which relate the number of infectant individuals in a closed population to the number of susceptible individuals, the number of immune individuals, the contact rate, the birth and death rates, and the proportion of vaccinated susceptibles. After computer simulation, the model is validated using data from the East North Central section of the United States. Satisfactory agreement between predicted and reported cases is obtained. It is demonstrated that under reporting of actual cases is a significant factor in modeling the epidemic process. The efficiency of various vaccination programs in eradicating rubella is investigated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)189-198
Number of pages10
JournalComputers in Biology and Medicine
Volume4
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1974
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Epidemics
  • Mathematical model
  • Preventive medicine
  • Rubella
  • Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Science Applications
  • Health Informatics

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