Abstract

Information cascades exist in a wide variety of platforms on Internet. A very important real-world problem is to identify which information cascades can 'go viral'. A system addressing this problem can be used in a variety of applications including public health, marketing and counter-terrorism. As a cascade can be considered as compound of the social network and the time series. However, in related literature where methods for solving the cascade prediction problem were proposed, the experimental settings were often limited to only a single metric for a specific problem formulation. Moreover, little attention was paid to the run time of those methods. In this paper, we first formulate the cascade prediction problem as both classification and regression. Then we compare three categories of cascade prediction methods: centrality based, feature based and point process based. We carry out the comparison through evaluation of the methods by both accuracy metrics and run time. The results show that feature based methods can outperform others in terms of prediction accuracy but suffer from heavy overhead especially for large datasets. While point process based methods can also run into issue of long run time when the model can not well adapt to the data. This paper seeks to address issues in order to allow developers of systems for social network analysis to select the most appropriate method for predicting viral information cascades.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2016
EditorsRavi Kumar, James Caverlee, Hanghang Tong
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages591-598
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9781509028467
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 21 2016
Event2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2016 - San Francisco, United States
Duration: Aug 18 2016Aug 21 2016

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2016

Other

Other2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2016
CountryUnited States
CitySan Francisco
Period8/18/168/21/16

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Sociology and Political Science
  • Communication

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    Guo, R., & Shakarian, P. (2016). A comparison of methods for cascade prediction. In R. Kumar, J. Caverlee, & H. Tong (Eds.), Proceedings of the 2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2016 (pp. 591-598). [7752296] (Proceedings of the 2016 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining, ASONAM 2016). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/ASONAM.2016.7752296