Research Abstract The impacts of demographic, social, economic and other changes in the U.S. on the demand for wilderness recreation are not well understood. Prior research conducted by the PI and the Station Representative discovered a potentially promising approach for predicting long term trends in the demand for hiking in U.S. Forest Service Wilderness areas based on intergenerational change in preferences. The ability to discern the trends in visitation and the forest qualities preferred by hikers will facilitate effective planning. This project will develop this approach for predicting long term trends in wilderness recreation using an existing collection of backcountry hiking permits for wilderness areas in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade, and Southern Appalachian Mountains. Wilderness data based on the National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) program will also be explored for inclusion. Wilderness use data will be augmented with Level III Eco- System data developed by the Environmental Protection Agency and travel distance measurements from PC Miler software. The final data set will be used to estimate travel cost models that incorporate generational cohort variables. These models will be used to forecast use of a select set of US Forest Service wilderness areas by cohort and ecosystem characteristics. These models will provide a platform for developing a broader set of wilderness demand models anticipated in Phase II of this research program.
|Effective start/end date||8/7/13 → 6/30/15|
- USDA: Forest Service (FS): $45,000.00
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