Forecasts of General Funds Revenue Project

Project: Research project

Description

Notes for the Renewal of the Revenue Forecasting Project - FY 2009 For FY 2009 the Seidman Research Institute will supply OSPB with General Fund Revenue Forecasts in the Big 3 categories, individual income taxes, corporate income taxes, and sales taxes with monthly updates. The forecast will include estimates for FY09, 10, and 11. For FY 2009, the following forecasting upgrades will take place: All models will be re-estimated using data through June 2008, and is continually re-estimated using data released throughout FY 2009. Special emphasis will be undertaken to account for how the structure of the revenue models has been changed over the most recent volatile business cycle period. Extensive analysis designed to estimate the impact of real estate activity on: General Fund Collections Contracting and Retail Revenue Capital Gains Revenue Being on call for very short term assignments to assist the Governors Office. Also for FY 2009, staff of the Seidman Institute will work with staff of OSPB to formulate GF capacity scenarios that explicitly account for available revenue or the General Fund under various assumptions about spending patterns and revenue the budget scenario models. For FY 2009, we will refine estimates of monthly flows to facilitate year-to-date comparisons with predicted flows. Additional tasks that the Seidman Institute stands ready to perform, but are outside the terms of this particular contract, include: Being on call for more extensive analysis, as requested by the Governors Office; Estimate the impact of a broad range of tax law changes in general fund collections; Assist in the development of an Economic Report of the Governor; and White Paper Reports on various topics.
StatusFinished
Effective start/end date8/1/086/30/09

Funding

  • Arizona Office of the Governor: Office for Strategic Planning & Budgeting: $88,148.00

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Revenue
Scenarios
Staff
Contracting
Economics
Assignment
Tax
Upgrade
Corporate income tax
Retail
Renewal
Sales tax
Real estate
Capital gains
Business cycles
Income tax