Effects of Natural Disasters on Spatio-Temporal Patterns Across Crime Types in the United States

Effects of Natural Disasters on Spatio-Temporal Patterns Across Crime Types in the United States Effects of Natural Disasters on Spatio-Temporal Patterns Across Crime Types in the United States Natural disasters and other climate-related threats pose a significant threat to communities and human livelihood worldwide [1]. These types of events are gradually becoming more extreme and their societal repercussions more egregious with the changing climate [2]. Over the previous decades, many researchers developed theoretical frameworks and hypothesized about the changes in crime following extreme weather events [3, 4, 5]. As exposure to these natural hazards increases with climate change, accurate spatio-temporal predictions of crime patterns will be necessary for appropriate and effective allocation of law enforcement resources. However, statistical investigations have produced inconsistent and even at times contradictory findings [6]. While patterns have emerged suggesting that crime patterns may remain unaffected when examined over a long enough period of time, individuals and communities can exhibit a variety of responses from these events [6]. The lack of comprehensive statistical studies have left it difficult to confirm in what circumstances crime rates increase, decrease, or remain unchanged following a disaster event. In this study, we aim to detect the spatio-temporal changes in crime rates following a variety of natural hazards of varying magnitude in the United States. We intend to account for features of the event that may drive differing crime patterns, such as the type of event, duration, and magnitude. Previous studies analyzing the impacts of natural disasters on spatio-temporal crime patterns have either focused on a single event [3, 4, 7], or considered the number of natural hazards occurring in a region in aggregate annually [8]. By drawing on more fine grained spatio-temporal disaster and crime data, we will be able to analyze changes in crime patterns for a variety of events across various time scales. This approach will allow us to draw larger conclusions about the impacts of event type, duration, and magnitude on post-disaster crime patterns.